Thanks in part to the collapse of the economy and the clear victories Obama and Biden have captured in their debates, the Electoral Map is looking pretty darn good for Obama with less than 30 days till Election Day.
59% of Americans rate the economy as the number 1 issue, and during my canvassing for the Obama campaign last week in my hometown of Holly Springs, NC (a Raleigh suburb), that was the case of the vast majority of people I spoke with. Obama’s showing as a calm, reassuring figure has given him a double digit lead on the question of who is better able to fix the economic downturn.
John McCain did not do himself a whole lot of good by having one of his top advisers say “If we continue to talk about the economy, we lose.” I would agree 100%. Barring some catastrophic incident, like another 9/11 style attack, there seems to be very little that John McCain and his pit bull sidekick, Sarah Palin can do at this point. Their aggressive negative assault on Obama will only work to solidify the rightest of the right who are probably the racist, uneducated low-lives who are calling Obama a “terrorist” and offering to “kill him” at their rallies. The rest of the country however, will be turned off even more to the sleaze and fabrications that are coming out of the McCain camp. Most people realize that McCain is grasping at straws when he tries to bring up Bill Ayers. People are tired of that crap and want to know what he will do to fix the economy. His plan to buy up all the bad mortgages is a terrible idea that probably wouldn’t work – and frankly was already part of the $700 billion bailout plan. His plan to tax employer based health care and make up the difference with a $5,000 tax credit has been universally panned and deemed “the end of employer based health care as we know it” by several newspapers and even the US Chamber of Commerce.
John McCain clearly doesn’t get it and the Electoral Map is really starting to reflect that, which is why victory for Obama should almost be guaranteed at this point, let alone a landslide.
Consider how many paths Obama has to the required 270 Electoral Votes. Current polls show Obama with healthy leads in ALL states that John Kerry won in 2004. Along with that, he has significant leads in Iowa and New Mexico, 2 states that Bush won in 2004. Assuming that Obama does carry those 2 states along with all of the Kerry states, that would put him at 264 Electoral Votes and would need just 1 of the bigger toss-up states among Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Indiana, and Missouri. Current polls show Obama with leads in all of these states except Indiana and Missouri which are close. Colorado and Virginia are probably Obama’s best bets as Obama has polled well in those states and has actually seen his leads increase significantly since the middle of September. Several polls show Obama with a double digit lead in Virginia and as high as 8 points in Colorado. And let’s not forget that Obama BEAT Hillary in the Virginia primary and got the majority of the White vote there. My home state of North Carolina has seen Obama with leads as high as 6, though some polls also show McCain with a small lead. Ohio and Florida will also be very close, but if Obama can win either Colorado or Virginia, he won’t need either state to win it all.
It is quite possible however, that Obama can win ALL of the toss-ups, which could put his final count somewhere in the 350 range, which would be considered a landslide. On the flip side, John McCain needs to win ALL of the toss-ups in order to gain a slim victory and given the current economic crisis, I just don’t see how a majority of voters in states like Florida, Ohio, Nevada, and even Indiana can think that McCain is the better choice at this point based on the issues. Of course, there is the racism factor that will play a role. The question will be how big a role and will all of the new voter registration cancel out the racism factor.
One pundit said that John McCain needs an inside straight to win. If you go by that logic, than all Obama needs are a pair of dueces – but if the polls are an indication of how voters are thinking, I think he may be looking at a royal flush.